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N.Y. in path for potential snowfall in pre-Valentine’s Day storm – SILive.com

N.Y. in path for potential snowfall in pre-Valentine’s Day storm – SILive.com

An AccuWeather graphic shows snowfall probabilities for the storm set to impact the New York area on Monday, Feb. 12, 2024. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — It seems New Yorkers won’t have to wait long to arm themselves with a snow shovel and brace against the returning threat of winter. Despite a series of mild days, a snowstorm looks to put a damper on things just before Valentine’s Day, according to initial forecasts.
AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping an eye on the developing track of a storm which could shift north or south in the coming days. Should the storm steer north, it could bring with it multiple inches of snowfall, although AccuWeather notes exact amounts will ultimately be determined by the strength of the storm.
EARLY FORECASTS FOR NEW YORK
Early AccuWeather graphics indicate that most of the state can expect to receive snowfall during the timeframe of the storm Monday overnight into Tuesday; the exceptions to this being New York City and parts downstate.
The Big Apple and the Lower Hudson Valley can look to receive more of a mix of rain/snow, according to AccuWeather. The National Weather Service forecast for New York City currently has the city slated with a chance of seeing rain and snow as the storm moves in Monday before transitioning to rain entirely overnight and turning back into a mix Tuesday.
Initial AccuWeather estimates give New York City up to a 20% chance of seeing snow accumulation of at least 3 inches. Most of the state has been given a 40 to 60% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow.
The areas with the highest probability of seeing snow are located in the central parts of New York. The stretch of land with a probability range of 60 to 80% includes areas such as Utica and Rome.
– A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration graphic shows the probability of exceeding 0.25 inches of the liquid equivalent of snow/sleet for the storm expected on Monday, Feb. 12, 2024. (Courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)(Courtesy of the National Oceani
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated that those areas in the central portion of New York State have a 30 to 50% chance of seeing more than 0.25 inches of the equivalent of snow or sleet Monday into Tuesday.
THE TRACK OF SNOW
Before the Northeast sees the ultimate outcome of this brewing storm, the system will first make its presence felt in the south with some rainy precipitation over the weekend, according to AccuWeather.
Accumulating snow may fall over parts of the southern High Plains on Sunday and extend across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley into Monday, AccuWeather meteorologist Dean DeVore said. However, snow looks to remain limited, as temperatures do not appear to be cold enough to foster some frosty precipitation.
“While the January thaw and break from the stormy pattern extended into early February, there is going to be a change in the pattern with a potentially impactful storm coming swinging across the Midwest and Northeastern states from Monday to Tuesday,” DeVore said.
Should this storm reach the Northeast, it may have the necessary conditions to form some formidable snowfall.
“Colder air will gradually be drawn into this storm as it moves from the Central states to the Eastern Seaboard,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “How quickly that occurs will depend on how fast the storm strengthens.”
Should the storm remain weak, minor accumulations can be expected from the Ohio Valley to the central and southern Appalachians, with a wintry mix in the mid-Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday, according to AccuWeather.
An AccuWeather graphic shows the storm outlook for the storm set to impact the New York area on Monday, Feb. 12, 2024. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
However, should this storm garner some strength, it could march further north and drop a broad swath of accumulating snowfall stretching from the central Appalachians to New England.
POSSIBLE STORM OUTCOMES
While the storm could remain weak or muster up strength, AccuWeather acknowledges the existence of other possibilities.
Other potential scenarios include a major nor’easter, or simply some spotty precipitation. But most situations in play still allow for some snow to fall from the Ohio Valley to parts of the Appalachians, as noted by AccuWeather.
AccuWeather will look to release updated snow forecasts in the near future, however, they warn that should the storm reach its full potential, it could result in heavy snowfall in the Northeast.
While uncertain over precise figures, it seems that the return to winter is already beginning.
“One thing is for sure, this storm will start a pattern that brings colder, more active weather from the Midwest to the Northeast with reinforcing shots of seasonably cold air masses with the potential for some clipper systems to bring snow events,” DeVore said.
FLEETING WARMTH
This turn towards cold conditions marks a stark departure from the trend of mild temperatures which has characterized the week so far.
Temperatures reached the 50 degree mark Thursday, according to the Advance/SILive.com weather station, continuing the climb towards the upper 50s expected over the weekend.
Mild weather could give way to a potential snowstorm in the Northeast ahead of Valentine's Day. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
“Our mildest day of the stretch is going to be Saturday,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said. “And we’re looking at temperatures way up in the 50s. It’s possible that we actually take a run at 60 that day.”
This high approaches the all-time Central Park record for the day, Dombek notes. The current record sits at 61 degrees; the notable figure was established just last year in 2023.
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